40 billones de deuda y un comprador que no es quien crees
Descripción del Episodio
La deuda federal de Estados Unidos ha superado los 40 billones de dólares, y en lo que va de 2026 siete bancos centrales han comprado 219 toneladas de oro. La conclusión rápida es que el mundo ya no se fía del dólar. Sin embargo, Washington sigue colocando cada bono que emite, así que la pregunta útil es otra: quién los compra, con qué dinero y durante cuánto tiempo puede sostenerlos.
Este vídeo esta apadrinado por Trade Republic. Infórmate aquí: https://trade.re/marc3
Los datos del Tesoro para los doce meses hasta junio muestran que los bancos centrales extranjeros vendieron deuda estadounidense mientras los inversores privados la compraban. Investigadores de la Reserva Federal calculan que fondos domiciliados en las islas Caimán absorbieron el equivalente al 37% de la emisión neta de bonos entre 2022 y 2024, en buena parte con dinero prestado que se renueva a muy corto plazo. El colchón de liquidez que la Fed ofrecía a los fondos monetarios llegó a superar los dos billones y hoy apenas roza los 5.000 millones.
El episodio recorre lo que ocurre cuando esa financiación se atasca. Pasó en el mercado repo en septiembre de 2019, con tipos cercanos al 9%, y pasó en Londres en 2022, cuando los fondos de pensiones británicos se convirtieron en vendedores forzados y la primera ministra dimitió en menos de un mes. Después cruza a Tokio, donde el bono a diez años ha tocado el 3% por primera vez en tres décadas, y a París, que paga más que Italia pese a tener mejor calificación.
Con Walter Bagehot y Hyman Minsky como guías, la pregunta final es incómoda: si el sistema siempre encuentra a alguien que financie al comprador, ¿quién acaba pagando la factura cuando ese alguien desaparece?
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