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#94 Ex-BlackRock Risk Analyst Explains Why Risk Models Lie | Joe Hegener

The David Guttman Podcast•29 de septiembre de 2026•3359•
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Descripción del Episodio

I asked Joe Hegner, a PIMCO alum who now runs his own hedge fund, what the pension funds and central banks he advised get wrong, and his answer was not what I expected. He explains how the same portfolio can look safe or dangerous depending on who sets the assumptions, and why the downside he thinks is least likely gets extra weight in his own fund. We also get into the helicopter over Athens that tracked down Greek tax dodgers by their swimming pools, and why he doubts the EU lasts another decade. The moment that stuck with me was his dad, a former Wall Street CEO, telling him right out of college that he knew nothing and needed 10 years first.


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Website: https://bit.ly/4iO2v7H

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Timestamps

00:00 - Intro to the show

01:31 - From philosophy classes to economics

03:16 - Getting cut from JV lacrosse

06:20 - His dad's early Wall Street exit

10:30 - Is college still worth the money

11:10 - AI tutors at the Alpha School

16:40 - Why he stopped trusting risk numbers

22:17 - Why he chose to run a hedge fund

23:21 - His dad's ten-year rule

24:59 - Michael Saylor and financial engineering

26:34 - Blockchain versus crypto as an investment

29:06 - Rising long bond yields and debt

33:18 - The swimming pool tax hunt

37:01 - Could the EU break apart

40:27 - Where he'd go if things break

41:06 - Learning my wife is not my mom

44:36 - A coal shoveler turned company CFO

48:14 - Longevity, faith and falling birth rates

50:52 - What he wants his kids to say

54:43 - Where to connect with Joe


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